SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Your Sports Apparel is Your Personal Statement

What’s new in Sports apparel?Apparently, just that there is a lot more of it around! As it has been for a while now, wearing sports apparel is quite popular. Some people only wear the gear from one or two teams while others have an entire wardrobe full of every team and state in the nation. Whether it is the colors or team spirit, we may never know, but sportswear is still “in.” Remember back in the day when it was primarily hats/caps that were worn? Not anymore! There are shirts, tee-shirts, jerseys, caps, hats, and even accessories to go along with every sports team you can think of.From coast to coast there is a wide variety of followers for any given team. You might see people with Chicago hats in Florida or you might see a Kansas NCAA cap in South Carolina. What it all boils down to is a combination of popular style and team spirit. There are plenty that fall into either category. There are few sports left out as the MLB, NCAA, NFL, and NBA all have lines of sports clothing available and believe me, it is being bought!Sports are big business in the US at any level. Don’t think that the teams aren’t making money off of their licensed logos that adorn all of this sports apparel, because they do. More than that, though, is that the people have chosen a style. Wearing sports clothing is trendy, socially acceptable by most standards and popular. It is so popular that you would be hard pressed NOT to find a sports apparel store in any mall. More often than not there are several.One thing that is fairly new is having the logos of the teams but not the colors. Maybe they did it to attract more women to wearing sports wear, but there are a lot of pink shirts and hats out there with every licensed logo you can think of. Also, for a while, New York had this pale blue color on a lot of the clothing, hats and tee shirts especially. That threw some folks for a while. The logo and the colors didn’t add up but somehow it all worked out. What is important is that what the people want is sports apparel and that is exactly what they are getting. Whether your taste is more toward the traditional or the modern there is no need to worry because you will be able to find it.Team spirit? Logo loyalty? Color craze? Who knows, but its working! The people are happy, the stores are happy and the sports franchises are happy. You even see the gear from teams you never used to see before, like the Tigers. Yes, they have been around for a long time, but you just didn’t used to see so many people wearing their clothing. Perhaps there will be more of that in the future. Athletic teams who have gotten little exposure before will suddenly be seen in all of the sportswear shops. How refreshing!

The Benefits of Learning How to Program Computers

I still remember the excitement I felt when I wrote my first basic program on the BBC Micro at school. It was a simple four line program that drew a triangle on the screen. In the early 1980s we enjoyed playing games such as Chuckie Egg and the famous Granny’s Garden on the BBC Micro which was the first computer we were introduced to, but the real excitement was getting the computer to perform tasks in the basic programming language. Simple programs that drew shapes or printed text on the screen weren’t exactly ground-breaking but it was enough to wet my appetite for programming and set me on the path to programming games on other computers such as the Spectrum, Atari ST and Amiga.In the good old days of the Spectrum you could buy magazines which feature pre-written games in basic code that you could type into your own Spectrum and hope the program ran okay. This was a great way of learning how code works and what commands do what. Books on basic programming were also released that would take you through the basics of commands and structure, and end up programming an entire game. The satisfaction of making things happen was amazing.So what are the benefits of learning how to program computers? In my personal experience it gives you a sense of achievement to create an entire program from scratch and see it working. Working out how to get the computer to do something is challenging as you try to decide how you are going to do it. The excitement of being able to create your very own game where you make the rules. The joy of other people playing it.Programming is good for the mind as it involves problem solving. For example: how to get multiple sprites moving across the screen and dropping bullets like the famous Space Invaders game. What to do if a player does something unexpected and the game crashes, how to tell the computer how to deal with these unexpected events. I once spent over a week programming a zoom function into an Art Package I wrote which gave me a great feeling of relief when I finally got it working.Programming can also be lots of fun and a great hobby. I met some good friends when I was writing programming tutorials for various Atari ST diskzines in the 1990s who I still hear from to this day. We would send each other disks full of programming tools and routines and look forward to the many programs we could create where we were limited only by our imagination. Our creations were reviewed in the top Amiga and ST magazines of the day which is something we all looked forward to.Finally programming can become a good source of income for you. Creating your own programs can become a reality with the many excellent programming languages available such as App Game Kit which allows you to create software that runs on multiple devices. People always want new software and employers need to find programmers to create it.There are many game creator programs on the market which require no programming at all but I personally find them limiting. If you want to create your own games or application then I highly recommend you get stuck into some good old fashioned coding with one of the popular programming languages on the market today.